Military conflicts to escalate if India refuses to withdraw troops

  0 comments   |     by Global Times on August 21 , 2017

Addressing the ongoing border face-off between China and India, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj told her country’s parliament on Thursday that “all countries are in India’s support,” and said India is alert to the need to protect its security near “the border where the boundaries of China, India and Bhutan meet,” Indian media reported Thursday. She was lying to the parliament. First, India’s invasion of Chinese territory is a plain fact. New Delhi’s impetuous action stuns the international community. No other country will support India’s aggression. Second, India’s military strength is far behind that of China. If the conflict between China and India escalates to the intensity where their row has to be resolved through military means, India will surely lose.

India should abandon the fantasy of a long-term standoff at Doklam. China will by no means agree to the withdrawal of troops from both sides in order for talks to be held. Doklam is Chinese territory. The withdrawal of Indian troops must be a precondition for talks and China will not compromise on this stance. We notice that India’s stance has recently changed subtly and started to stress that Doklam is “a tri-junction area of China, India and Bhutan” and attempts to call for “both sides to withdraw troops” to allow for talks. These changes show New Delhi’s guilty conscience.

China has reiterated its stance on the issue and shown the utmost tolerance and patience toward India. If Indian troops continue trespassing into China’s territory, what Beijing may do next is to get prepared for a military confrontation  against New Delhi and resolve the conflict through non-diplomatic means. India should have heard about the news that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed troops near the China-India border and transported materials and supplies to the area. The PLA is also reportedly conducting drills for mountain operations. These are certainly not for show. Now that the PLA has moved in on the China-India border, they will definitely not call back troops unless they recover the Chinese territory.

China cannot afford to “lose an inch” of territory. This is the sacred wish and request of the Chinese people. The Chinese government will not breach the fundamental will of the people and the PLA will not let the Chinese people down. If New Delhi remains stubborn, India should get prepared for all possibilities from a potentially grave escalation of tension in the future. The PLA’s mobility and logistics capability cannot be matched by that of its Indian counterpart. PLA troops may appear in any area beyond the line of actual control that was previously controlled by India. The China-India border area may become a stage where China showcases the achievement of its long-term military development and reforms.

The way some Indians compare China’s military strength with that of India at the border is extremely comical. They bragged that India has more troops in the area but they fail to realize that the PLA’s strong capability to deploy troops can reverse the balance of power at the border within a day. The PLA’s long-range combat capability can also allow its troops in remote area to provide fire support to troops at the border. China’s military spending is four times that of India where its GDP volume is five times that of India. The great gap will shape the actual pattern of power balance between the two countries at the border.

Back in 1962, India underestimated China’s resolution to safeguard its territory. We hope India won’t repeat this mistake. India should by no means count on support from the US and Japan because their support is illusory. If India fancies the idea that it has a strategic card to play in the Indian Ocean, it could not be even more naïve. China does hold a lot of cards and can hit India’s Achilles’ heel, but India has no leverage at all to have a strategic showdown with China.

Lastly, we must say that the later India withdraws troops, the greater the risk that it will face from a military counteraction and the more clout it will lose politically. China’s military pressure on India will increase every day and India will end up losing face and be totally disgraced.

 

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